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鬼城:土地和楼盘并非取之不竭的金蛋

2017/07/19 08:38 来源: 人民网 评论
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跟几个朋友闲聊去库存,有一位长者感慨,去年春节至今,回了河北廊坊老家三次,看着房价“火箭式”翻倍,又“断崖式”下跌,像上了过山车,每一次都怕心梗在路上。

跟几个朋友闲聊去库存,有一位长者感慨,去年春节至今,回了河北廊坊老家三次,看着房价“火箭式”翻倍,又“断崖式”下跌,像上了过山车,每一次都怕心梗在路上。

不仅是环北京,伴随着热点城市限购限贷,不少冷门二线城市和环热点三、四线城市,都在这一轮去库存中出现了“房价急涨、进而限购、再现骤冷”的情况。

这种“骤热骤冷”的背后释放着一种隐忧:如果房价快速上涨是依靠炒房游资带动刚需恐慌式入市来支撑,那么一旦收紧购买条件,只剩下自住和改善型刚需“独舞”,楼市就会迅速冷场,库存依然高企。像经历了几轮“骤热骤冷”的合肥、西安,就是代表。

“骤热骤冷”是我们最不愿意看到的楼市顽疾。在促进房地产业健康发展中,中央一直强调“既抑制房地产泡沫,又防止出现大起大落”,为何“骤热骤冷”还是反复出现,甚至从一线城市蔓延到了三线城市?

过去,我们优选并过度依赖于限价、限购、限贷的行政手段,这固然可以在最短时间达到引导需求规模和走向的效果,但毕竟不是治本之策。更何况,在此轮“去库存”中,我们始终面对两个“并存”的难题,即一、二线楼市过热与三、四线楼市过冷并存,一、二线城市商品住宅供不应求与办公楼、商业营业用房积压严重并存。这种“冷热调和”的难题,根子不在房子,而在于区域发展的不平衡,以及产业发展的不均衡。

楼市两个“并存”的难题,恰恰是中国经济结构性失衡的缩影。新常态下的新问题,必须从供给侧结构性改革上找药引,引导楼市供求实现新的动态均衡。

从供给侧看楼市,先得“不忘初心”。我们盖房子的初心是什么呢?最早是遮风避雨,后来是安居乐业,总要满足人的需求。反观一些地方,本末倒置,把房地产业视为金鸡,把土地和楼盘视为取之不竭的金蛋,只想着把楼盖起来,却忽略如何把人留下来。殊不知,再恢弘的物业只是蛋壳,产业和就业才是蛋白和蛋黄,是最有营养价值的部分。只有三、四线城市的实体经济强起来,能提供更多工作、更好收入,人口才能聚过来,消费才能旺起来,所谓的睡城、鬼城才能活过来、火起来。

从供给侧看楼市,还要玩转“四手联奏”。买房子,要考虑票子、孩子、妻子、老子,甚至车子。换言之,房子的难题也是社会公共服务均等化的难题,通过交通疏导、教育均衡、医养公平等“补短板”齐头并进,才有可能缓解楼市的结构性难题。

从供给侧看楼市,更得讲究“反弹琵琶”。库存“压力山大”是缺乏需求还是满足不了需求?经济结构在调整,百姓消费在升级,房地产业若是刻舟求剑,就会造成资源错配。看看身边年轻人为买套格局、采光、环境皆满意的婚房发愁,很多移动办公的创业型企业为找不到心仪的办公场所犯难,这些难道不是楼市去库存的突破点吗?

经济新动能正处于从孕育形成到快速扩张的关键阶段,房地产业也不妨采取“盯人战术”,通过变旧库存为新供给,不断满足新需求。毕竟,城市的活力,往往不在高楼大厦,而是清晨巷口弥漫的豆浆香和街头绵延不绝的马达声。

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责任编辑:高隽琰  JN1712
【延伸阅读】
国土部:建议调整库存压力较大城市土地供应计划
三四线城市去库存要靠产业发展
土地巨量"库存"调查:楼市距"地王时代"有多远
楼市11月或迎房价拐点 多城市库存量持续攀高
常州楼市高库存难去 都是土地财政惹的祸
三四线城市房地产库存天量 楼盘或需消化10年
楼市错位去库存:大战才刚刚打响
全国十余城市楼市库存量同比大涨近三成

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href="http://ts.focus.cn/loupan/200597.html" target="_blank">勒泰城</a> <div class="newest-tip"> <i class="arrow"></i> <a class="title" href="http://ts.focus.cn/loupan/200597.html" target="_blank">勒泰城</a> <p>最低价格 : <em>7500元/㎡</em></p> <p>位置 : <i>路北北新西道与西外环交口北行200米</i></p> <p>热线 : <em>400-683-0099 转 90019</em></p> <a class="btn" href="http://ts.focus.cn/loupan/200597.html" target="_blank">楼盘详情</a> </div> </div> <em class="loupan-sale"></em> <span class="loupan-price">7500元/㎡</span> </li> <li class="clearfix"> <div class="loupan-name"> <a class="name" href="http://ts.focus.cn/loupan/200558.html" target="_blank">中南唐山湾</a> <div class="newest-tip"> <i class="arrow"></i> <a class="title" href="http://ts.focus.cn/loupan/200558.html" target="_blank">中南唐山湾</a> <p>平均价格 : <em>9000元/㎡</em></p> <p>位置 : <i>唐山市乐亭县滨海大道以南乐北路以东</i></p> <p>热线 : <em>400-683-0099 转 90109</em></p> <a class="btn" href="http://ts.focus.cn/loupan/200558.html" target="_blank">楼盘详情</a> </div> </div> <em class="loupan-sale"></em> 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