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收入全国前5%才有资格住北上广深 你达标了吗?

2017/06/30 16:48 来源: 每日经济新闻 评论
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目前,中国房价究竟离不离谱?我认为有一点高,但还不算很离谱。在我看来,一个国家核心城市的房价和这个国家的总人口有更紧密的联系。

英国、德国、法国这些国家的人口大概就是6000万~8000万,澳大利亚和加拿大有两三千万人口。意味着在这些国家,你只需要成为其国民收入的前30%~50%的行列,你就有资格住到住到核心城市里。但在中国,四个核心城市可容纳8000万左右的人口,但中国的人口数量有16亿。也就是说,你的收入或存量财富必须是排在这个国家的前5%左右,才有资格住到核心城市里去。

对于经济,我们认为今年下半年可能会开启大规模房地产补库存运动,下半年经济不会差,到年底之后会进入政策观察期,明年上半年房地产行业可能会进入被动补库存阶段,届时可能会进入一个新的政策窗口期。

从A股投资角度来看,A股去年下半年以来的蓝筹行情是两个因素带来的,一个是IPO加速和监管趋严带来了确定性溢价,另一个因素是供给侧改革和地产产业链复苏带来的蓝筹盈利好转。过去几年,我们创业板的增速大概在30%以上,但主板增速10%多一点,从去年年底到今年上半年出现了一个新的现象,创业板和中小板的增速向下出现拐点,沪深300核心股票向上出现拐点,这是市场2017年蓝筹强、小盘股弱的另一个重要因素。

对于蓝筹股在今年上半年的盈利加速,我把这种现象理解为地产后周期。去年上半年地产销售增速30%多,这种销售增速一定会体现到2017年的下游行业,即水泥、机械、白酒、家电。接下来下半年,我觉得地产还是补库存的阶段,行业盈利依然会漂亮,市场有自我强化的过程,接下来这些公司可能还会再创新高。中期来看,一方面要关注这些行业的盈利变化情况,另一方要关注市场预期变化带来的抢跑行为。

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