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楼市要从“摇钱树”变成“常青树”

2011/08/26 15:13 来源: 中国经济网 评论
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楼市要从“摇钱树”变成“常青树”

作者:贾卧龙

  尽管开发商们一再否认房地产是暴利行业,但房价犹如狂奔烈马,一路高歌猛进、睥睨群雄,对于开发商和炒房客来说,过去的十年就是房地产不折不扣的黄金十年。2011胡润财富报告显示,炒房者占中国96万千万富豪的20%,不难看出,炒房是富豪之所以成为富豪的主要致富捷径之一,从某种意义上来讲,楼市是造就无数财富神话的“摇钱树”。然而,随着楼市调控不断深化,这一“铁律”会逐渐逆转,房地产转型势在必行,今后楼市将逐渐告别神话,从短期暴富的“摇钱树”转向更健康更持久的“常青树”。

  由粗放到集约房企转向“深耕细作”

  事到如今,恐怕连相信楼市调控不会放松的人都要意外中央政府的坚定决心了,从保障房到限购再到房产税,楼市调控“动真格”,从2009年以来的此次调控,也许不是的,但确实是迄今为止最严厉的调控,古今大势,顺者昌逆者亡,开发商如果还一味沉醉在昔日的辉煌岁月中不肯醒来,不肯顺应大势,无疑将在“洗牌”中接受惨痛教训,轻则负伤,重则淘汰。而这个需要认清的“大势”就是,房地产行业将告别暴利时代,结束粗放规模式野蛮生长,转向集约精细化发展。

  单一意味着风险,房企转型,由单一到多元调整供需结构是题中之义。

  从横向来看,被调控死死“盯牢”的住宅市场将告别一家独大的场面,商业地产、旅游地产等此前一直被动压抑的非住宅力量,则会进一步脱颖而出焕发浓浓生机,告别深秋寒冬,迎来属于自己的初春盛夏。“春江水暖鸭先知”,其实,自去年以来,已有众多开发商高调布局商业地产,保利、金地、万科等诸多房企都先后宣布了自己企业的商业地产开发计划。

  纵向来看,产富億坊挂诙嘣幕∩仙罡缸鳎岣卟返钠分省7康夭谐≌谙蚵蚍绞谐∏阈保悍空咴谡莆崭嗟幕坝锶ǎ郧翱⑸探ㄊ裁捶孔佣蓟嵊腥寺颍咏裢螅悍空叨苑孔有约郾鹊囊蠡嶂鸩教岣撸庖灰蠼辉偈艿角崾佑牒鍪印

  炒房暴利时代终结房产投资理性化

  提起“温州炒房团”,可谓无人不知无人不晓,温州炒房团是全民炒房时代的典型代表,但凡炒房团所到之处,一般都会造成房价一路飙升的现象,无数温州人借着房子上演着传奇般的楼市致富故事。然而,随着调控不断深入,住宅投资“去杠杆化”明显,据住建部调研数据显示,住宅投资回报率已经从前几年的15%下跌至5%,温州楼市近来更是屡屡爆出崩盘消息,其实并非空穴来风,普通住宅已经丧失了投资属性,炒房暴利时代已然终结。

  房产投资正趋于理性化,闭眼买房稳赚不赔的时代已经成为过去式,投资房产的风险正在加大。据温州总商会对商会4万会员进行的一项地产投资调查显示,八成受调者表示已经放弃一线城市的住宅投资,准备转向商业地产。虽然商业地产投资需要更多专业知识,操作难度更高,但相比住宅的政策风险,显然他们宁愿放弃风险高的住宅选择相对更稳健的商业地产项目。此外,房产投资步入证券化,未来民间资本更多将以新型金融业态参与房地产行业,房产投资日益科学理性。

  黄金十年,楼市一度是开发商和炒房客眼中金色的“摇钱树”,然而,在深度调控的大背景下,楼市曾经的耀人光芒正在黯然散去,住宅市场逐渐“去杠杆化”,向居住属性回归是大势所趋。对于楼市而言,转型比降价更全面、更深刻也更重要,摒弃暴利和泡沫,是任何一个行业得以健康常青的前提。

  贾卧龙博客:http://blog.ce.cn/html/65/115165.html

  作者简介:贾卧龙,中华房商合作联合会执行主席和秘书长,全国工商联房地产商会全国房地产经理人联盟副主席,中国房地产经理人联盟常务理事,香港太平洋国际集团有限公司执行官。

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<em>待定</em></p> <p>位置 : <i>永盛大街与黄河路交叉口东北角(原北大摩托)</i></p> <p>热线 : <em>400-683-0099 转 93363</em></p> <a class="btn" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150199.html" target="_blank">楼盘详情</a> </div> </div> <em class="loupan-sale">深州市</em> <span class="loupan-price">待定</span> </li> <li class="clearfix"> <div class="loupan-name"> <a class="name" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150219.html" target="_blank">融创大厦</a> <div class="newest-tip"> <i class="arrow"></i> <a class="title" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150219.html" target="_blank">融创大厦</a> <p>平均价格 : <em>4800元/㎡</em></p> <p>位置 : <i>人民路与顺兴街交汇处南行200米</i></p> <p>热线 : <em>400-683-0099 转 93318</em></p> <a class="btn" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150219.html" target="_blank">楼盘详情</a> </div> </div> <em class="loupan-sale">桃城区</em> <span class="loupan-price">4800元/㎡</span> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="item last "> <div class="top clearfix"> <a class="loupan-img" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150147.html" target="_blank"> <img src="http://img1.focus.cn/thumb/180/hs/12418/a_124176217.jpg" alt="时代广场"/> </a> <div class="info"> <h4><a href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150147.html" target="_blank">时代广场</a></h4> <p class="ave-price">平均价格 <em>待定</em></p> <p class="tag">桃城区</p> <a class="detail" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150147.html" target="_blank">查看详情</a> </div> </div> <ul class="loupan-list"> <li class="clearfix"> <div class="loupan-name"> <a class="name" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150141.html" target="_blank">丽景嘉苑</a> <div class="newest-tip"> <i class="arrow"></i> <a class="title" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150141.html" target="_blank">丽景嘉苑</a> <p>平均价格 : <em>2340元/㎡</em></p> <p>位置 : <i>德州市东风西路山水大街东侧</i></p> <p>热线 : <em>400-683-0099 转 93350</em></p> <a class="btn" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150141.html" target="_blank">楼盘详情</a> </div> </div> <em class="loupan-sale">武邑县</em> <span class="loupan-price">2340元/㎡</span> </li> <li class="clearfix"> <div class="loupan-name"> <a class="name" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150202.html" target="_blank">昊和·御金院</a> <div class="newest-tip"> <i class="arrow"></i> <a class="title" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150202.html" target="_blank">昊和·御金院</a> <p>平均价格 : <em>6500元/㎡</em></p> <p>位置 : <i>新开街</i></p> <p>热线 : <em>400-683-0099 转 93367</em></p> <a class="btn" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150202.html" target="_blank">楼盘详情</a> </div> </div> <em class="loupan-sale">武强县</em> <span class="loupan-price">6500元/㎡</span> </li> <li class="clearfix"> <div class="loupan-name"> <a class="name" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150052.html" target="_blank">怡安家园</a> <div class="newest-tip"> <i class="arrow"></i> <a class="title" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150052.html" target="_blank">怡安家园</a> <p>平均价格 : <em>8500元/㎡</em></p> <p>位置 : <i>育才街与大庆路交叉口西北角</i></p> <p>热线 : <em>400-683-0099 转 93382</em></p> <a class="btn" href="http://hs.focus.cn/loupan/1150052.html" target="_blank">楼盘详情</a> </div> </div> <em class="loupan-sale">桃城区</em> 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