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杨绍功:如何理解农民工与去库存的关系

2015/12/16 09:26 来源: 新华网-中国名牌 评论
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  中央已经明确去库存要靠农民工转化而来的“新市民”,而不是农民工;未来的住房制度改革围绕的核心,也是“新市民”而非农民工

  如何化解高企的房地产库存,是当前从上到下都十分关心的问题。因为去库存不仅关系到新型城镇化建设的质量,更关系到经济的健康稳定发展。近期,中央政治局会议提出,可通过加快农民工市民化的方式解决房地产库存问题。然而,有些地方可能将其单纯解释为鼓励农民工买房、让农民工成为化解房地产库存的主力军。如果这样简单片面地理解,有可能对工作产生误导,值得重视。

  细读会议文件,在谈到化解房地产库存时,确实提到了农民工,而且农民工还是一个主语。靠农民工去房地产库存,看起来也合情合理。因为一方面农民工常年在城市打工,他们是最需要住房的人群之一;另一方面,当前房地产库存压力较大的多是三四线城市,而这些城市有的是农民工的主要输出地,有的是农民工进入一二线城市的跳板,这些地方的房子最可能被农民工购买。

  不仅如此,有些地方还出台了鼓励农民工买房的政策,而且取得一定效果;有些地方建设了保障房,优先满足农民工的居住需求,受到了社会好评。这些事例表明,鼓励农民工买房、把库存房变保障房给农民工住,确实对化解房地产库存有一定的作用,相关的举措也值得肯定。但是,单纯依靠鼓励农民工买房来化解当前的历史高库存,真的靠谱吗?

  国家统计局的数据显示,2014年全国外出的农民工为1.68亿人,其中仅有1%选择了在务工地购房。即便是以1名农民工买1套100平方米的住房计算,去年外来务工人员能为全国消化的库存量也只有约14%。也就是说,购房的主力其实还是各地的户籍人口。因此,如果没有强烈的刺激政策,按照目前的情况想要让农民工成为去库存的主力军,似乎并非一个科学合理的办法。

  其实,会议文件的完整表述是:“要化解房地产库存,通过加快农民工市民化,推进以满足新市民为出发点的住房制度改革,扩大有效需求,稳定房地产市场。”这句话的核心主语应该是“新市民”,也就是说,中央已经明确去库存要靠农民工转化而来的“新市民”,而不是农民工。不仅如此,相关的政策即未来的住房制度改革围绕的核心,也是“新市民”而非农民工。此外,中央强调的是“有效需求”,而不是简单地租住或临时性居住。

  明年是“十三五”的开局之年,今年年底召开的政治局会议,中央在会上的表述是为未来经济发展透露方向性的信号。中央提出“以满足新市民为出发点的住房制度改革”并突出“有效需求”,其深意是下定决心要通过有质量的城镇化来化解当前高企的房地产库存。这种有质量的城镇化,就是农民工市民化。而农民工市民化,体现的正是“共享发展”的理念。要让为城市发展做出贡献的农民工,共享城市发展的成果。以新市民为出发点的住房制度改革,就是要让他们在发展中更有获得感。

  片面地理解农民工与去库存的关系,不仅是可笑的,对我们的工作更是有害的。如果相关部门、地方简单认为去库存靠农民工,不先从推动农民工成为新市民方面下功夫,坐等农民工来买房救市,无异于守株待兔,误判了方向。这既会错失发展的机会,更可能沦为一厢情愿的单相思。试想,如果不在解决农民工的就业、医疗、养老、子女教育等问题上花心思,不在农民工市民化方面做改革,城市怎能留得下农民工,房子又怎能卖出去?

  发展不是一剂立竿见影的猛药,改革也不是一蹴而就的转变。靠农民工化解库存,如果没有共享发展做基础,恐怕会南辕北辙。


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【延伸阅读】
住建部研究去库存: 增加农民与农民工购房支持
时评:供给侧改革之下 房地产去库存如何发力
观点:去库存是楼市持续发展根本
住建部门推政策包支持农民和农民工购房
去库存将成楼市主旋律
楼市“去库存”将贯穿2016年
业内解读:鼓励农民买房能否去库存
楼市去库存 三目标四原则六路径

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