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行业利润率持续下滑 房地产企业生存拐点正在到来

2015/09/11 09:06 来源: 新京报 评论
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近日公布的142家上市房企2015年中报显示,上半年负债合计近3.4万亿元,同比增长13%,平均负债率为76.8%,创下近年峰值,超过四成负债率超过70%红线。净利润率只有约9%,相比2013年已显著下滑约3个百分点。

这组数据说明了哪怕是上市公司型的房企,日子也并不好过。负债率超过70%,属于风险增加的区域。在楼市繁荣期,部分房企高负债,就意味着高杠杆,这是有利于快速扩张的。但在市场平稳期或低迷期,仍出现高负债,多属经营压力和风险的显现。

截至今年7月末,全国商品房待售面积为66259万平方米,其中商品住宅待售面积同比增长18.1%。今年以来全国楼市复苏,但是区域差异明显,一线城市显著回暖,二线城市有所反弹,而广大三四线城市复苏乏力,住宅库存仍处历史偏高水平。

上市公司业绩已经显现承压,而更多的中小房企的经营压力更是在继续恶化之中。国家统计局数据表明,2005年全国房地产开发企业5.6万家,2013年增至9.1万家,其中仅在受金融危机冲击后的2009年房企数量略有下降。

从 房企数量变化来看,看似并无压力加大的迹象;其实不然,房企数量由增转降的历史性拐点正在到来。房企数量一般与全国新房销量呈正相关。1998年以来,我 国新房成交量不断增长,其中仅2008年和2014年下降。全国新房销量未见历史大顶,房企数量不可能大幅下降,因为是按项目公司统计的。2014年全国 房企数据尚未公布,很可能再次出现下滑,也就是说,2014-2017年间很可能将会出现历史高点。

笔 者曾经指出,2011年全国房企购地量事实上已经见到历史大顶,2013年全国新开工量也已是见到历史大顶,2016年或2017年全国新房销售将也很可 能见到历史大顶。所以房企数量很可能在2013-2017年见到历史大顶。另外,近两三年行业并购案例越来越多,这从融创的频频行动即可管窥。这也会加速 房企数量见顶。

如果从更大的视角和格局观察, 其实2011年已经是中国房地产业黄金时代与白银时代的分界线。2011年之前的约十年,行业利润率很高,绝大部分时间段,开发商不管大中小,过得都是胡 吃海喝的蜜日子。而2011年开始,行业利润率持续下滑,微利项目、甚至亏损项目越来越多。三四线城市中小房企的苦苦挣扎自不必说,即便是在一线城市风光 抢地的那些大房企,谁又敢拍胸脯保证高价地一定能带来高利润?

因此,以历史的眼光看长期趋势,必定会有越来越多的开发商退出这个行业,而继续呆在这个行业的多数企业也将转型,这是一个行业的宿命。但并不代表这个行业的 完结。一方面二手房市场规模将越来越大,另一方面城市更新将一直存在。另外,新房开发行业的集中度还将继续提高,10-20家大型房企的营收规模还将继续 扩大。这个行业的游戏还将继续,只是玩家哭多笑少。

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【延伸阅读】
上市房企净利润率跌进10% 房地产变中低利润行业
房地产行业利润下滑 成都攀成钢地块遭遇难产
楼市成交下滑为行业祛除暑热

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江景玉都
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