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二手房半年交易量创六年新高 6月现断崖式下跌

2016/07/08 09:11 来源: 京华时报 评论
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二手房

先扬后抑6月现断崖式下跌

>>数据

半年交易量创六年新高

今年上半年,北京二手住宅经历了冲高、降温、断崖式下跌的过程,整体市场在逐渐趋冷。

据伟业我爱我家集团数据中心统计,今年上半年,北京全市二手住宅共成交135507套,环比2015年下半年增长20.6%,创下2010年以来半年度交易量的新高,成交均价为43465元/平米,环比2015年下半年的均价上涨9.3%。

上 半年的二手房市场,主要经历了三个阶段:第一阶段为1-3月份,市场快速升温,交易量逐月走高,3月份交易量突破3万套,创下3年来的单月成交量新高;第 二阶段为4-5月份,市场冲高回落逐步降温,但成交量仍在2万套以上;第三阶段为6月份,市场交易量出现断崖式下跌,交易量萎缩近5成,仅有1万余套。

据伟业我爱我家集团数据中心统计,分区域来看,上半年通过我爱我家达成的二手住宅交易中,33%位于朝阳区,16.8%位于丰台区,16.5%位于海淀区。由于地域广、存量房源供应量大,朝海丰三区仍然占据着北京二手住宅交易量的前三位。

此外从数据也可以看到,随着南城开发建设力度的加大,房源供应量的增加,尤其是交通、教育、医疗、商业等配套资源的逐步完善,较低的房价开始吸引更多的购房需求流向丰台,这也使得丰台的交易量占比超过海淀,位居全市第二。

上半年通过我爱我家达成的二手住宅交易中,海淀、东城、西城的二手住宅价格依然最高,超过5万/平米,西城更是超过7万/平米;门头沟、房山的价格最低,平均不到2万/平米。

户 型结构上,上半年成交的二手住宅中,一居室占25.5%,较2015年增加2.3个百分点,均价44957元/平米;两居室占51.2%,较2015年减 少1.9个百分点,均价43758元/平米;三居及以上占23.4%,较2015年减少0.4个百分点,均价42384元/平米。两居室最受市场青睐,交 易量过半。

上半年的二手房买家中,80后买家占54.6%,占比较2015年略微减少0.5个百分点;其次为70后,占23.4%,较2015年下降2.8个百分点;90后买家有6.1%,较2015年增加1.9个百分点。

>>分析

伟 业我爱我家集团副总裁胡景晖认为,上半年北京二手住宅市场先是延续了2015年“3·30”新政后的升温趋势,成交量持续走高;此后,由于购房需求被提前 透支,需求不足的市场开始降温。与此同时,过热的市场也引发了政策导向的转变,楼市政策开始收紧,购房者逐渐回归理性,市场、政策双重因素的作用下,二手 住宅市场在6月出现了大幅降温。

胡景晖表示, 从当前的政策形式来看,北京未来的楼市政策仍将从严趋紧,二手房市场的持续低温或难以避免。而根据以往的数据,北京二手住宅的年均交易总量一般在15万套 左右,近几年随着存量房市场规模的增加,年均交易总量也就在20万套左右,而今年仅上半年二手房成交就已超过13万套。根据历史经验推断,下半年北京二手 房市场的成交规模也就在七八万套的水平,下半年北京楼市降温将是大势所趋,而房价也会随着交易量的萎缩,逐步企稳回落。

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