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房地产市场降温意义几何

2016/06/15 09:28 来源: 经济参考报 评论
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国家统计局最新公布的1至5月房地产市场数据显示,曾经火爆了几个月的房地产市场已经开始全面回落。

尽管房地产开发企业土地购置面积比1至4月份有所增加,但仍然处于负增长中。而房地产开发投资、商品房销售面积及销售金额在1至5月都出现同比下降。特别是住房销售金额增速回落了5.2%。

这可能有两方面的原因,一是早几个月一些城市疯狂上涨的房价开始有所收敛;二是一些城市房价疯狂上涨现象有可能向其他城市蔓延,但这种蔓延使得上涨火候在减势。

而房地产开发投资增长回落及房地产开发企业购买土地面积增长为负增长,都意味着房地产开发商并不是完全看好当前的房地产市场,特别是不看好中西 部地区的房地产市场。因此,他们一方面在早几个月房价疯狂上涨的市场抢购土地,另一方面又在逐渐地退出三、四线城市的房地产市场。因为,在他们看到,这些 城市的房地产市场所面临的风险越来越大。

前几月一些城市房价疯狂上涨,实际与一般居民的住房消费无关,基本是投机者利用银行信贷过度炒作的结果。

在上述房地产市场的数据中,最为显眼的是住房销售金额的大幅回落。可以看到,在1至4月份,房地产市场火爆最主要表现为,住房销售金额的增长速 度快于住房销售面积增加速度近一半。即今年房地产市场的繁荣完全是由房价上涨来推动。而这种房价快速上涨不仅表现为一线城市及部分二线城市房价上涨的疯 狂,也表现于一年来不少房价持续下降的城市房价又回到上涨轨道。

当前房地产市场,只有房价上涨,才能改变市场预期,让投资者重新进入住房市场,这样才能重新启动房地产市场增长。如果房地产市场预期不变,投机 炒作不进入,市场的增长动力无从而来。所以,当1至5月房地产销售金额又开始回落,而且这种回落也大于住房销售面积回落将近一半时,这也可能意味着一些城 市房价上涨的势头已经开始收敛,甚至于出现下降的迹象。

5月份房地产市场数据中,有两个负增长的数据,一个是房地产开发企业购买土地面积负增长,一个外国进入房地产市场的资金严重负增长。前者表明房 地产企业对中国未来的房地产市场还是信心不足。特别是在中西部城市的房地产开发商。后者表明,随着中国房地产价格飙升及地王接连出现,外国投资者看“懵” 了,在这种情况下,最保险的方式就是撤出中国房地产市场。

总之,住房销售金额增长回落可能意味着房地产价格上涨预期逆转,并由此引发房地产市场周期性调整。对此,住房投资者应该格外当心。

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